Live updates, oil markets, Hormuz risk, military moves, diplomacy, and what happens next.
Oil prices would spike 15–25% instantly. Global shipping insurance costs would double overnight.
Countries most exposed: Japan, South Korea, India, and EU nations import 20–30% of their oil through the strait.
US strategic reserves would be released — but markets would panic before any intervention takes effect.
IRGC proxy network activation would trigger simultaneous pressure on multiple fronts — Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Syria.
Gulf states face direct exposure. Saudi Aramco infrastructure identified as high-priority IRGC retaliation target.
Regional war risk would force emergency OPEC+ meeting and likely NATO Article 5 consultations.
Brent crude would drop 12–18% within 48 hours of a credible deal announcement. Shipping lanes reopen fully.
Iran demands: security guarantees, sanctions relief, war reparations, sovereignty over Hormuz.
US demands: nuclear freeze, no enrichment above 5%, IAEA full access, proxy network restrictions.